Political Trends & Dynamics

The Rise of Radical Right and Eurosceptic Political Forces and the Impact on the EU’s Enlargement Policy

With war raging on the European Union’s eastern border and the bloc seeking to redefine its geopolitical identity, another political transformation is unfolding within: the growing influence of radical right and Eurosceptic parties. Once largely marginalised actors, these forces are now increasingly reshaping Europe’s political priorities from within national parliaments and Brussels. This report takes stock of the growing influence of radical right and Eurosceptic political forces within the EU and examines the implications for EU enlargement policy. By shedding light on the developments in several EU member states, this report aims to map the challenges that these dynamics are likely to pose for the rejuvenated momentum on EU enlargement...

Factsheet: The Rise of Radical Right and Eurosceptic Political Forces and the Impact on the EU’s Enlargement Policy

This factsheet provides a condensed outline on how the growing influence of radical right and Eurosceptic parties is reshaping EU politics—and what this means for the future of EU enlargement.

Learning from the 1990s: Germany’s Evolving Security Posture

Despite steps toward military normalization, Germany remains a security recipient—de facto still reliant on American forces stationed on its territory. This enduring dependence complicates its aspirations for strategic autonomy and limits its ability to fully transition into a leadership role in global security. Historically, Germany emphasized a strictly civilian and normative foreign policy approach. The shift toward military engagement—symbolized by the Kosovo

intervention and later reaffirmed by the Zeitenwende—marks a significant but still contested reorientation.

Political Trends and Dynamics: Navigating Southeast Europe's Futue: A vision for 2030

Within the last PTD in 2023, join us on a journey into Southeast Europe's future as geopolitical shifts reshape the region. In this edition, our experts forecast SEE dynamics by 2030, offering critical tools for decision-making amidst global transformations. From the reverberations of the conflict in Ukraine to challenges in EU integration and the complex relations of the region with foreign actors, this volume argues for a recalibration of strategies for genuine progress.

The authors Vesna Pusić, Dušan Reljić, and Katerina Kolozova also emphasize other challenges, like that of depopulation and economic disparities hindering growth, and propose innovative social policies, including the promotion of immigration, to address depopulation...

Political Trends and Dynamics - Cyber Security in Southeast Europe: Past, Present and Future

In today's hyper-connected society, cyberspace is closely intertwined with our daily existence, influencing everything from public services to private interactions. But this convenience comes at a price, as our collective security is interconnected with the threats of data breaches, ransomware, cyber violence, and others. Europe and the United States have initiated groundbreaking efforts to establish a robust regulatory framework to combat these challenges. However, Southeast Europe, despite its proximity to Eastern Europe - where significant cyberattacks, often originating from Russia, have been documented for years - has been slow to address cybersecurity concerns, leaving itself exposed to attacks.

Political Trends and Dynamics: Addressing the complexities of migration in Southeast Europe

Over the past few decades, migration dynamics have significantly shaped Southeastern Europe as a region. Most recently, Southeast Europe has been affected by the transit of refugees and migrants from other regions, and many of its citizens are emigrating. Unfortunately - regardless of the type of migration, no trend has received adequate reactions from government officials.

Political Trends and Dynamics: Cold winter ahead: Energy supply and energy poverty in Southeast Europe

This winter, eyes across Europe are on thermostats and energy bills, and concerns over energy supplies are overwhelmingly present. The threat of energy poverty is particularly high in Southeast Europe. This edition of Political Trends and Dynamics gathers insight from experts on what the winter ahead is going to mean for the region. With contributions from Stefan Bouzarovski, Marta Szpala, Simon Uzunov, Slavica Robić and an interview with Julian Popov, this edition discusses the different angles of the energy crisis that seems to be looming on the horizon since the aggression on Ukraine – and the potential solutions in taking on an active role in the energy transition. Our authors, scholars and practitioners in the field of energy,...

Political Trends & Dynamics: Why we should care about demography - Population trends in SEE

In around 30 years, formerly communist Central and Southeastern Europe have lost millions of people, probably unseen in peacetime. The Western Balkans lost 1.3% of their population in 2018 alone. Planning adequate social policies in response to demographic trends has been part and parcel of modern Western policymaking. Yet, for decades demographic issues have not been given much attention. Demography is central not only to contemporary policymaking but also to understanding modern socio-political malaise in European societies. The answers are not straightforward, and solving the policy riddle of economic and democratic implications of population change may push European societies to test the limits of their declarative commitment to liberal...

Political Trends and Dynamics: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: what consequences for Southeast Europe?

Europe is regrettably witnessing a return of war. Russia’s assault on Ukraine, a sovereign European nation, is likely to become the largest European conflict in decades, which has brought back horrors from the past, already taken a catastrophic human toll, and generated a great migration crisis on the continent. The global response has been overwhelming.

Political Trends and Dynamics: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: what consequences for Southeast Europe?

Consequences of the war in Ukraine are felt well beyond its borders, and the circumstances have already caused unprecedented shifts in foreign policy across the continent. This issue of Political Trends and Dynamics in Southeast Europe focuses on the immediate implications of the war in Ukraine on the region's security.

We first explore how regional ties to Russia and Russian influence affect political stability in Southeast Europe. Our contributors also look at the future of regional security in the context of Europe’s geopolitical shift and whether a new sense of urgency could be beneficial for regional stability in the long run. Finally, this issue explores the effect of the war on the Euro-Atlantic paths of Western Balkan countries...

Political Trends and Dynamics: Diplomacy in Southeast Europe

Third edition of Political Trends and Dynamics and the last one in 2021 offers insights on diplomacy in Southeast Europe – one of the critical tools in state arsenal for navigating through the international arena, for better or for worse. In this edition, we consulted former foreign ministers and diplomats to assess the battles won and ongoing when it comes to practices of diplomacy in the region, with a particular focus on the Western Balkans, three decades after the dissolution of Yugoslavia and in the face of reemerging security crises.

Political Trends and Dynamics: Security and Arms Control in SEE

Second edition of Political Trends and Dynamics for 2021 focuses on security politics in the Western Balkans, against the backdrop of arms trafficking and recent security developments. Two decades after the wars of the 1990s, there seem to be two distinct, and paradoxical trends, circulating the region.

On the one hand, security concerns are still regularly permeating the political discourse, stoked by increased violence, following Russia´s invasion of Ukraine, as well as nationalist movements and the criminal underground. From auxiliary police forces to massive increase in sizes of regular armed forces and their arsenals, the Western Balkans are arguably undergoing an arms race. On the other, despite the legacies of the conflicts, or...

Political Trends & Dynamics: Women Leaders in Energy Transition

Marking International Women's History Month, Political Trends and Dynamics newsletter brings to the fore the phenomenon of women as emerging leaders in the regional sustainable energy sector. While Southeast Europe largely remains inefficient in tackling energy transition, and with an already visible toll of climate change, one of the most prominent exceptions to the unspoken rule of disengagement is women.

Political Trends & Dynamics: Challenges to the Rule of Law in the Western Balkans

Our last issue in 2020 introduces this topic, in the context of the Western Balkans and the EU's attempts to encourage substantive reforms in the region's judicial and law enforcement communities. With contributions from Nedim Hogić and Jovana Marović, as well as an interview with the primary author of the EU's „Priebe Reports “, Reinhard Priebe, we are certain that this edition will remain a relevant read well into the new year.

Political Trends & Dynamics: The Far-Right in the EU and the Western Balkans

The growing popularity and influence of reactionary, far-right movements represent an acute threat to regional and collective security and democracy in the 21st century. The rising tide of such movements has put great pressure on European societies to somehow confront them. In this edition of Political Trend & Dynamics we will explore what in fact makes these far-right movements a hazard for democracy, and how such like-minded groups are linked across the continent and with the US.