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Natural disasters, it turns out, are anything but. Instead, “acts of God” are in practice exacerbated by human practices and norms. Politics and governance patterns and norms, too often, determine the full contours and costs of otherwise non-human maladies, from disasters to pandemics. In the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, this edition of the Political Trends and Dynamics newsletter examines the human factor in Southeast Europe’s disaster preparedness protocols.

In the Western Balkans, the COVID-19 pandemic has been met by already weak social protection systems. The broader social impacts are likely to be both severe and long-lasting. Some positive lessons can be drawn from the initial social policy response by regional governments, including changes to non-contributory cash benefits and insurance-based schemes, which have contributed to reducing income shocks. At the same time, investments were overall modest, some especially vulnerable groups were not targeted, and the effect of one-off measures must remain limited.

This is the fourth and last edition in a series of reports which sets out to analyse the effects of the Corona crisis management on institutions, political and civil rights, parties, civil society, as well as external factors. Elections in the times of the Corona crisis were held in Serbia and Croatia. In both countries, the incumbent parties were the clear winners while voter turnout was below 50 %. A new upsurge of the number of infections is putting the fight against the pandemic back on the political agenda. The re-introduction of repressive measures is met with strong resistance by the population and has led to violent clashes in Serbia.

Insurgent conservatism is on the rise. New conservative civil society groups and movements are trying to expand their social base and mobilise adherents as they frame their action(ism) as rebellion against, or counterculture to, the dominant cultural and political narrative of modernisation and renewal.

While the anti-Corona measures are being relaxed in most cases, the State of Emergency has not been lifted in all countries of the region, yet. North Macedonia is struggling with a worrisome increase of infections. Five countries of the region are preparing for elections. The Corona virus crisis is in a way a mirror held up to each country revealing its strengths and weaknesses as well as its state of democracy.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina the term human rights is a platitude mostly used for daily political purposes without real understanding of the term, and especially without raised awareness of effective mechanisms for human rights protection.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced to zero by 2050 at the latest if global warming is to be limited to 1.5 °C. If we fail to achieve that objective, we risk setting in motion mechanisms whose consequences are almost impossible to predict – and today still appear abstract and unreal. The current scientific consensus suggests that the effects will far exceed the increase in extreme weather events already observed. We face the irredeemable destruction of entire ecosystems, and with them the livelihoods of whole societies.

Social democrats in Europe should use the Green Deal to bring together key issues such as climate protection, decent work, social cohesion and economic development in a renewed drive for progress and recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic